Finale "No Good Deed Goes Unpunished" Preview

Six are left and it appears that three have little chance to win, and three are in the running unless the three who can't win are the three finalists.  To me, the only valid players to win are Sarah, Cirie and Brad.  Cirie is most likely to get a sympathy or anti-Sarah vote, which I expect could happen as this seems to be the trend in Survivor lately.  (Adam with his dying Mom story, Michelle as the anti-Tai/Aubry, Jeremy's Baby).  If one of my top three make it to the end, but none of them win, then Survivor has lost it's purpose to me, especially in a season called "GameChangers."

Here's how I rate the six finalists in terms of who should get the jury vote based on the season, knowing full well there is information outside the game that can and probably influence the final outcome.  Note this isn't my final order, as I do not expect Sarah, Cirie and Brad all to make the final three.

Let's review what I said pre-game about the finalists:


Troyzan will start out on the Mana Tribe which has many threats, but has the personality to bring together a coalition early to take on the big guns.  He has the ability and charm to make his way to the merge and at least on the jury again, and with a little help and luck could find himself in the Final Tribal Council. He's five years older than the last time and at 55 he may not be as strong in Individual Immunity Challenges.

Cirie has played three times, and although she has her moments and ideas, she has yet to develop a real strategy. I can't say that she coasts, but she does form alliances with much stronger strategy players.   I can't see that flying in Game Changers.  I don't see the match on her initial tribe, but it could be there somewhere.   Ironically it could be J.T. that she teams up with.  Cirie won't be perceived as a threat as there are several bigger threats on her tribe.  Depending how it plays out, she could go deep once again. as other perceived threats will be sent out.

Brad has a very strong personality.  I think he got a bit of an unfair edit, but it went along with how things eventually played out.  On Game Changers, he has the potential to align with J.T. and Ozzy, but I would be surprised if any of the women trust him, although there's a potential to team up with Sarah.  I would not expect him to get along with Tai, Zeke, or Cirie, and he's not Andrea's type although he could potentially bully her like Rob and Phillip did in her two previous outings.  I suppose that Debbie and Sierra could be wild cards for him, but I would expect Brad to be gone in one of the first three votes by his tribe.

Looking at Sarah's tribe in GameChangers, there are several people she can get in an alliance and gain control.  She will also need to be wary of getting on the bad side of people like Brad, Cirie, Ozzy or  JT.    I could see Sarah, Zeke and Debbie teaming up to put together a strong team to run the game.  Unless Sarah comes in with guns blazing, I would expect her to get to the merge and Jury, but if the chips fall her way, with her observation skills, she could make a run to the final.

In Game Changers, Aubry is one of my favorites to win, so watch her go out early.  I think she can adjust her game to play a little more smartly and she was strong in challenges, so the combination could help her.  Watch for her and Michaela to team up on strategy early on.  An early misstep could eliminate her, but I see her going deep again.

In Game Changers, Tai will need to be more firm and not be a pawn to other people.  He will not be thought of as loyal, unless he proves it in this game.   I see him as too nice and his conscience will get  the best of him, and I expect him to be eliminated prior to the merge.

Definitely wrong on Brad and Tai, Sarah is pretty much right on, Aubry went deep but probably can't win (see below), Cirie and Troyzan I waffled on a bit, but saw the possibility of them being here.  

Here are my ratings for the final 6 on their chances to win:

1. Sarah has clearly played the best game and is really one of the true GameChanger players.  Playing the "criminal" this time, she has been perceptive in picking up the Vote Steal advantage from underneath Michaela's feet, and backstabbed Sierra while still getting the Legacy Advantage willed to her.  If she intentionally trapped Cirie into playing the Vote Steal Advantage, then she is the Queen of GameChangers, and should get the Sole Survivor Title if she makes it to the end.  No one else comes close in game playing moves, but does she have the social game to win over those she helped vote out.

2. Cirie has caused havoc behind the scenes post-merge, but things may be unravelling for her as she tried to play Sarah's advantage and it backfired.  If she can figure out how to get Sarah out before Sarah gets her out, she can win the game.

3. Brad was an early stealth general making the calls on who goes without getting his hands really dirty, but he hasn't done much since the Malcolm vote other than win a couple of immunity challenges.

4. Tai has two idols and has twice come close to elimination and didn't play them.  He is not very well tuned into the strategy, but unlike his first game he hasn't caused any of the jury to not like him because of what he has done.  He could play his idols effectively, and he also could win immunity again, but he does not have the resume to win against any of the top three..

5. Aubry has been by far the most disappointing player this season.  She seems unsure of when to make a move and has followed along for the most part and has been left out of too many votes.  Last week she finally "thought" about making a move, but didn't really do anything.  Would be interesting if she and Tai made it to the end again, only to both lose.

6. Troyzan has an idol, but no moves, so I expect he's likely to be in the final three as a goat.


My final three is Sarah, Cirie and Troyzan.  Sarah should win, Cirie #2, and Troyzan #3.
Boot order 6. Brad, 5. Aubry, 4. Tai,

BONUS:  My favorite scenario for 6 or 5 Tribal.

Six:  Sarah wins immunity challenge, gives it to Aubry (or Aubry wins challenge), Tai and Troyzan play their idols, and Tai gives his other idol to Cirie.  Sarah plays the legacy immunity.  Brad either gets votes or has to draw a rock.

Five:  Sarah wins Immunity Challenge.  Tai and Troyzan play their idols, and Tai gives his other idol to Aubry or Cirie or Brad if he's still in, same situation as six, but the one without immunity has to go, by vote or rock.

I don't expect a great finish, but I'm willing to be surprised.   I also don't expect my final order to be anywhere near right.

Already Gone
20. Ciera (14)     14/20 60%

19. Tony (19)      33/39 85%
18. Caleb (15)    48/57 84%
17. Malcolm (2) 50/74 68%
16. J.T. (15)        65/89 73%
15. Sandra (15)  80/105 76%
14. Jeff (12)        92/119 77%

Jury:
13. Hali (11)       103/132 78%
12. Ozzy (10)      113/144 78%
11. Debbie (5)     118/155 76%
10. Zeke (10)       128/165 77%
9. Sierra (8)         136/174 78%

8. Andrea (8)       144/182 79%
7. Michaela (3)    147/189 78%

Total:  147

6. Brad (6)

5. Aubry (4) 

4. Tai (1)
3. Troyzan(2)  

2. Cirie (7)
1. Sarah (5)