Episode 7 "There's A New Sheriff In Town" Preview

After an emotional tribal council, the Nuku tribe merges with Mana and hopefully the game gets interesting after a very ho-hum pre-merge season as far as game play is concerned.  The total vote has been 40-8 for the 7 people eliminated with only the J.T. vote close at 3-2 although 6 votes for Sierra were not counted due to the Idol play by Tai.

We also know from the synopsis, that two players won't participate in the merge feast.  Are they Exiled?  Do they get something else?  Do they sit out the first Tribal Council or are they immune?

Original Mana has lost 6 people to Original Nuku's 1 so the smart bet would be for Hali, Troyzan, Aubry and Michaela going early and the remaining 9 Nuku battling it out.

There could be some surprises though:

Women outnumber men 8-5 and could take out Ozzy, Brad, and Troyzan pretty easily leaving Tai and Zeke.

Mana 3 has 7 members to Nuku 3's 6.

The Tavua tribe is still intact with 6 and would need to pull one person in to make a run, but I don't see that happening.

Sierra has some power on the next vote, and I'm not clear on what her alliance is, but it would presumably include Tai.

Aubry, Troyzan, Hali and Micheala could be used as a voting bloc for someone.

The Kaoh Rong three, Debbie, Aubry and Tai could be an alliance somewhere but also see this as unlikely.

Sarah and Troyzan could team up with some vulnerable players and overthrow the power players.  A Sarah and Troyzan alliance was also hinted out back in episode 4.

To be sure two hours of the merge will probably give us the ideas on how the alliances stack up.

I expect at least two eliminations in a two-hour episode, so here goes:

Already Gone
20. Ciera (14)     14/20 60%
19. Tony (19)      33/39 85%
18. Caleb (15)    48/57 84%
17. Malcolm (2) 50/74 68%
16. J.T. (15)        65/89 73%
15. Sandra (15)  80/105 76%
14. Jeff (12)        92/119 77%

Total:  92
13.  Aubry (8)--Of the remaining Original Mana, I see Aubry as the most likely to go after Troyzan, but he has an Idol.   Maybe Tai Saves her.
12. Michaela (9)--Will probably go in one of the two votes.  Just don't see her going much farther.
11. Hali (6)-- Hali moves back to vulnerable status as the individual game starts. Brad might save her?
10. Ozzy (13)--Ozzy has a big target on his back, could be a blindside without Immunity.
9. Brad (14) --Brad could be a bigger target than Ozzy, but his genuine emotional outburst may give his some alliances, especially with Hali and Aubry.
8. Troyzan(5)--Troyzan has an idol.  At the merge.  Good for him, at least on first vote.
7. Cirie (11)--Still not showing anything.
6. Debbie (7)--Has the double vote from Exile, so keeps her somewhat safe.
5. Andrea (10)--Andrea will slide for a little bit.
4.  Zeke--(1)  Zeke becomes more unsafe, bur probably safe enough for now.
3. Sierra(3)--Legacy is available at 13 but my bet is she will save it for 6.
2. Sarah (2) --Sarah may be a surprise boot, but I'm sticking with her here.
1. Tai (4)--Tai has two Idols.  How will he play them?  Survives the double episode.

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